US 4 UI

The United States, as a co-signor and de-facto guarantor of the 1998 Good Friday Agreement, has a critical role in insuring that the agreement is implemented. 

The agreement calls for a referendum  “…if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland.” 

However, as history has shown, the British Government is unlikely to allow such a referendum - no matter how "likely" a yes vote might appear - without sustained pressure from the co-signors of the agreement.  

This one's easy.  The demographic and political grounds have been shifting DRAMATICALLY in the North of Ireland in recent years. 

In February 2024, in a moment that would have been unbelievable even a couple of decades ago, Michelle O'Neill, an Irish Nationalist, was elected First Minister of the Northern Irish Assembly.  And Sinn Féin, the most vociferous party in favor of Irish Unity, is now the largest political party in the north.  

This is all the more impressive when one considers that the state was set up 100 years ago in such a way as to always guarantee a Pro-UK majority! 

And the demographics, especially among younger voters, have been moving in a nationalist direction for many decades. 

In addition, the disaster that has been BREXIT has convinced many middle-of-the-road Unionists that the Parliament in London is neither a reliable long-term partner, nor even a partner that really cares much for the people of the North of Ireland. 

In the coming months, we'll be publishing additional independent reports and statistics that will allow our readers to make their own judgements.